Round 5-8 Targets

So you've drafted your first 4 rounds and everything is going great. You got the stud RB you knew you wanted once the draft order was set. In the second round you knew you should have went WR but the RB you grabbed was too juicy to pass on. Third round came, you HAD to go receiver so you got one you don't love for your #1 guy but he'll do. Fourth round, you took the WR that fell that you don't love but had to take because he shouldn't have been available. Then the 5th round comes, you already have 2 RBs and 2 WR, now what? Maybe you go RB because almost all the starters in the league are already gone and you don't want to be stuck with Lamar Miller as your flex. Or, maybe you take a WR and add to your depth, all the reliable guys are gone, but if that one guy goes off he could take you to the promise land. Do you dare go QB or TE and get a player that is toward the top at his position even though your league-mates are going to call you out for taking them too early?!

The scenario listed above is something that almost every fantasy player will go through after the first 4 rounds. Those are easy picks, you know the names well, you can't really mess it up, and all of your favorite analysts would give you a high five so far on your picks. But, at round five the real draft starts. This is where the guys who dig deep in their research shine. They have their picks in the que and watch as the names get taken off the board with a smile. If you want to be the prepared guy follow this guide and taking notes is encouraged.

Round 5

Wide Receivers

This is where you're going to see a run on flexible wide receivers. Unfortunately, all of the receivers you could guarantee SOME production just went in the 4th. You're now looking at second fiddle players that performed well last year ( Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, Will Fuller), the big name players that have been studs before and you're hoping can flash their abilities again (Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins) and round it out with guys projected to be the top wide out but don't have enough of a track record (Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Dante Pettis).

Running Backs

All the RB's that are going to get their teams bulk of the carries are almost gone. The Rb's we're hoping are available here are Kenyon Drake, Sony Michele, Phillip Lindsay and Chris Carson. These are players that may have slid due to injury fear, lackluster offenses or a young gun hot on their tail. At least for this year all of these players SHOULD have job security (aside from maybe Drake if Ballage comes on).

Quarterbacks

So far there's probably one QB off the board and his name is Pat Mahomes. It's possible somebody pulled the trigger on Aaron Rodgers as well but with the position being so deep it wouldn't have been a good move. Pat is on a tier of his own, then you have the 2nd tier which is comprised of Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield.

Tight Ends

Just like QB's your top tier is gone. Kelce, Ertz and Kittle have been selected and you're left with the second tier players. These players are Vance McDonald, O.J. Howard, Hunter Henry and Evan Engram.

Selection

Now that we know your choices we can decide which position and players to target. It's simple, you have to draft a running back here. After this round you're going to be left with question marks or 3rd down guys at this position. At the RB position I love love love Chris Carson here, if you can get him take him. He's the main back on a run heavy team and he's good. Rashad Penny was drafted last year to be the lead guy but he faltered and Carson didn't. There's enough carries to go around in Seattle for both players even but Carson is far and away the best option. I'm expecting his ADP to rise between the time I'm writing this and your draft so if he's not there we have other options. Choose your favorite out of Drake and Lindsay. Sony Michele in a vacuum is the best pick but he WILL miss games due to his knee.

Round 6

If any of the running backs from last round are still there...ignore them. Do not take another running back, you have 3, the next back you take will be for depth toward the end of the draft. So for that reason we are not looking at that position in this round.

Wide Receivers

So the players mentioned last round are probably drafted, turn the page. The receiver position this year and most years is the deepest position. This round we're looking at players that are going to be on the field for much of the game but are dealing with QB issues (Corey Davis, Cortland Sutton, Marvin Jones) or the pecking order in their unit isn't set (Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald, Sterling Shepard/Golden Tate).

Quarterbacks

Your second tier guys have started to get drafted, sorry. However, much like the receiver group the quarterbacks are deep. You may be left with a couple of the round 5 guys we looked at though. If all of those QB's are gone it's ok, we'll wait. The next set of guys is going to feature players like Matt Ryan, Russel Wilson and Cam Newton.

Tight Ends

Round 6 is guaranteed to be the round when the 2nd tier tight ends get drafted. Other managers are going to see their RB, WR and flex position filled and decide its time to take a tight end. So, depending where you're picking in this round they may be gone. The next set of tight ends includes Eric Ebron, Jared Cook and David Njoku. Those are players that are solid tight end options and probably the last ones you'll pick before you have to stream.

Selection

Remember when I said this is where managers will start taking tight ends? You're one of those managers. If any of the round 5 guys are available you have to take them and be excited. My favorite of the round 5 guys is Evan Engram, he's set for a break out year. After Engram I like Hunter Henry, Vance Mcdonald then O.J. Howard. One of these guys should be available and if they aren't draft your favorite out Jared Cook and David Njoku. Cook and Njoku will be part of high powered offenses and will benefit from the talent around them. If you don't take a tight end here be prepared to stream.

Round 7

Your roster is filled with 3 RB's, 2 WR's and a TE.  Depending how your league is set up your skill positions including flex are filled. Your open starter positions are QB, Kicker and Defense. Some people get tempted to fill their open spots right away to make the best starting roster they can so a run on QB's could be next.

Wide Receivers

There should be some receivers left from the one's mentioned in round 6. Most likely you'll see Marvin Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Courtland Sutton or Sterling Shepard. Those will be your targets, but if by some grace of Roger Goodell they aren't there the next set is less appetizing. You're looking at Curtis Samuel, Keke Coutee and Desean Jackson. I don't think you'll need to dip into this tier but it's possible.

Quarterbacks

Some third tier QB's could still be available, these are Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Jamies Winston, Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz. These are players that have a high ceiling and mid floor. They will hold it down for you and you won't need to stream.

Selection

I know you want to see that filled roster with a quarterback pick here. We're going to hold off on QB again and take our 3rd WR. After this round we're left with a lot of maybe's at the WR position. You're going to be choosing from unproven and under-performing  players. It's important to have a back up at each of the WR and RB positions ready to go. There are a lot of injuries in football and you want to be prepared. Maybe it's a running back that goes down and you already have a replacement, that's great, but that was your flex. Now you need a new flex and this WR will have to fill in and produce. If any of the 6th round WR targets are there you need to take them. I suggest one of the Arizona guys (Kirk, Fitzgerald) because the speed of the offense they will be running will create a lot of targets. If they're both gone Corey Davis and Courtland Sutton should also see a lot of action.

Round 8

Now you've got 3 RB, 3 WR and a TE. This is it guys, it's time to take your QB. This is your last shot at the guys you can count on most weeks. Our options are possibly Newton, Brees, Wentz, Goff, Winston, Murray. I'm going Kyler Murray 10 out of 10 times. He was prolific in college and he's now in a system with a head coach that likes to sling it. This is a solid pick and the best shot at the next out of nowhere Pat Mahomes type season (Mahomes' season won't be repeated however). If Murray is gone, all of the next guys present their own positives and negatives BUT I like Jameis Winston to have a big year. Much like Murray he has the right coach but better outside weapons (Murray should do a lot more on the ground).




So there you have it. Your guide to rounds 5-8 for your fantasy football draft in 2019. Please note that sometimes things happen in drafts that are unpredictable. If the guys you thought were going to be there but aren't you have to make tough decisions. It's also very possible that a player drops and although you need to fill other positions it would be dumb to pass on them. Be able to stick and move out there and good luck!

Player Preview Le'veon Bell

Le'veon Bell

RB NY Jets

Is Le'veon going to pick up where he left off in 2017 after his sabbatical in 2018?

Average Draft Position

Bell's current ADP is 9 overall and 7 among RBs. This puts him at the end of Rd.1 right after Melvin Gordon/David Johnson but before his Steelers ex-teammate James Connor and former #1 RB fantasy scorer Todd Gurley. His ADP in 2017 was 2.3 only 2nd to David Johnson.

Career Stats

Over his career in Pittsburgh Bell averaged 19.8 rushes per game for 86.1 yards and 5 receptions per game for 42.9 yards.  He's only lost 4 fumbles in the 5 seasons he's played, so he's solid with the rock. Bell has scored 42 total touchdowns in 62 career games which means he scores about 67% of games. He played a full 16 games and once and endured a shortened 6 game season in 2015 due to an MCL tear. In the two years he played at least 15 games (2014+2017) he made the NFL All-Pro team both times. 2017 was a year where he averaged over 7 targets a game as the 2nd most targeted RB and 28th overall most targeted player. He averaged 22.8 and 26.5 fantasy ppg. in PPR formats in 2016/2017 making him the #1 and #2 best RB in the league those years. Bell didn't play in 2018 due to a contract dispute and was subsequently signed by the NY Jets.

Does Scheme Matter?

So we've covered Le'veon's  illustrious start to his career but some may argue that his stats are inflated due to his old team's scheme. When James Connor took over last year for an unhappy Bell he ran for 74.8 yards per game while scoring 12 TD's on the ground. Through the air Conner had 55 receptions for 497 yards and added a TD. Those numbers probably helped make the decision to cut ties with Bell this off season.

Bell's new team, the New York Jets, coached by Adam Gase may change  his fantasy output. Gase has been the head coach of the Miami Dolphins for the past 3 years. In the 3 years as head honcho Gase's teams ranked 9th, 29th and 18th in rushing yards. For rushing TD's in that same span they ranked 15th, 31st and 30th. The Steelers during the same 3 year period under Mike Tomlin ranked 14th, 20th and 31st in rushing yards and 16th, 15th and 7th in rushing Td's. Gase is taking over a team that was run by head coach Todd Bowles. Bowles was a defensive back in his playing days and a defensive minded coach in his coaching days. He along with then GM Mike Maccagnan put together a team that ranked 26th, 28th and 29th in total offense 2016-2018. Teams don't generally climb out of a rut like that overnight.

During Gase's tenure in Miami he had Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake as his top backs. Those 3 RB's are not bottom of the barrel players but they also aren't on the same level as Le'veon. With Bell and a better defense it's possible Gase runs the ball a smidge more. As far as targets to the RB, within Gase's gameplan, 2018 Drake was 16th in the league among RB's for targets with 4.6 per game, 2017 he averaged 3 targets. But, in 2014 while Gase was the Offensive Coordinator for the Chicago Bears he had an RB that lead the league in targets named Matt Forte. Forte averaged 8.1 targets per game which was 1.5 more targets than the next guy on the list who was...Le'veon Bell.

There's talk out there that Adam Gase's offense will severely hinder Bells production. What these stats show is that Bell will get his opportunity on the ground. The only issue could be Bells attempts at the end zone in close BUT he may make up for those opportunities through the air. Moral of the story? If Le'veon has a down year it won't necessarily be because of Adam Gase.

Teammate's Effect on Production

Let's start with the biggest reason for running back success, the O-Line. According to Pro Football Focus in Pittsburgh Bell ran behind a 3rd ranked line in 2016 and a 12th ranked line in 2017. Last year, the Jets ranked 25th in those same rankings, ouch. But, 2019 is a new year and the Jets made some changes to their offensive line. They brought in Kelechi Osemele to play left guard and also hired a new offensive line coach, Frank Pollack. With the new additions to the line, PFF has this Jets unit going into the season ranked...drumroll please...28th in the league. Ladies and gentlemen if Le'veon has a bad season this could be where the blame lays.

The person responsible for tossing Bell the rock this year will be Sam Darnold. Last year Darnold didn't dazzle but he did start playing better toward the end of the season. If he can start next season off this season that way maybe it creates a little more space for the run game.

The running backs behind a starter often cut into their touches. Last years backs of consequence returning to the Jets are Bilal Powell and Elijah Mcguire. Another RB brought in was Ty Montgomery the former GB WR who could take some targets away from Bell. Talent/Salary wise Bell is way ahead of his back ups so unless theres an injury I don't see him losing too many touches.

Schedule

According to Fantasy Pros the Jets have the 4th easiest schedule for running backs this year. They face a particularly juicy stretch at the end of the fantasy season with 4 opponents out of 6 ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league in rush yards allowed in 2018.

The fantasy playoff schedule for Bell looks pretty bleak. If you're good enough where weeks 15 and 16 matter to you, you'll be going against 2 of the league's top 5 rushing defenses with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. There's also a great chance the Jets will be out of contention at that point in the season, which is when beat up veterans needed for the next year take it easy. Although a Le'veon vs. Pittsburgh week 16 game for your championship could be fun to watch.

Verdict RB8

Le'veon Bell will be the Jets best offensive weapon this upcoming year. He'll have to overcome an awful offensive line, a losing team and a coach that didn't really want him but will undoubtedly use him. Between his skill and opportunity he should still have a decent season. Le'veon Bell, as of now, is my RB8.

Player Preview Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb

RB Cleveland Browns

Where do we draft Nick Chubb?

His current ADP (average draft position) is 22.6. This is getting him drafted at the back end of round #2 as RB 12 making him a projected RB1. In regards to RB's he's getting drafted right after Gurley/Cook and right before Damien Williams, Fournette and Aaron Jones.

Last year Chubb had 192 carries which was good enough for 10th in the league. The caveat here is that 176 of those carries came from week 7 on when he became the bell cow. Taking the 176 carries over the last 10 weeks and projecting that over a full 16 weeks as starter that gives him 281 and puts him 3rd in the league in carries. He averaged 5.2 yards a carry which was 7th in the league and yielded a total of 996 rushing yards total, ranking him 12th.

Goal line carries are a pivotal part of an RBs fantasy relevancy. Does your player get TD's poached from them by a teammate? Or do they get the call and produce the 6 points that you so desperately need. Last year Chubb got 7 carries inside the 5 yard line which resulted in 5 trips to pay dirt. Other than those carries at the goal line he broke TD runs for 41, 63, and 92 yards . He had 11 runs for 20+ yards, good enough for 2nd in the league behind Saquon.

Receiving last year wasn't a huge part of Nick's game. He had 20 receptions on 29 targets for 149 yards and 2 TDs. Again all of his damage came in the last 10 weeks of the season.

Last year's touch competition was the main reason he didn't get an opportunity until so late in the season. Carlos Hyde started the year as the teams #1 back and Duke Johnson was the 3rd down guy. Once Chubb got the chance he took off like a freight train and flourished. Carlos Hyde got traded to the Jaguars and Duke stopped getting snaps. His opportunity came in part because of a coaching change from Hue Jackson to Gregg Williams mid season.

This year the Browns have hired last years Offensive Coordinator as the Head Coach, Freddie Kitchens. It was under Kitchens that Chubb was a monster. Along with a new coach there is also a new RB in Kareem Hunt but Hunt is suspended the first 8 games and may not impact the team too much this season. Duke Johnson has been very vocal about requesting a trade from the Browns although nothing has been done yet. If Johnson does get moved it could mean more 3rd down opportunities for Chubb and even more fantasy upside.

The biggest news in the Browns off season was the trade for Odell Beckham Jr. from NYG. This could be a hitch in the giddy up of Nick Chubb because teams sometimes get obsessed with using their new toy of which Odell is very very shiny. Jarvis Landry also returns to the Browns receiving corps along with Richard Higgins and Antonio Callaway. This should be a decently prolific air attack for Cleveland and Nick could take a backseat after being the main attraction for the second half of last season.

According to TheHuddle.com the Browns have the 18th ranked Offensive Line in the NFL. So don't expect them to create consistent large lanes for Chubb to shoot through. The defense is also projected as 18th in the league by BleacherReport.com so its possible the Browns will need to put up some points and lean on the pass a little more.

Verdict: RB9

Nick Chubb is going around where he should be in drafts. I have him as my RB9 and should be a mid to late 2nd round pick. If Duke Johnson gets traded his upside is even greater as there is no viable option behind him until week 9 when Hunt comes back. He doesn't have a big name which can cause him to slide in drafts. It will be tough to duplicate last years 2nd half run but he should be getting around 18 carries a game giving him the opportunity to do so. Pick him and stick him...into your RB1 spot.