Player Preview Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb

RB Cleveland Browns

Where do we draft Nick Chubb?

His current ADP (average draft position) is 22.6. This is getting him drafted at the back end of round #2 as RB 12 making him a projected RB1. In regards to RB's he's getting drafted right after Gurley/Cook and right before Damien Williams, Fournette and Aaron Jones.

Last year Chubb had 192 carries which was good enough for 10th in the league. The caveat here is that 176 of those carries came from week 7 on when he became the bell cow. Taking the 176 carries over the last 10 weeks and projecting that over a full 16 weeks as starter that gives him 281 and puts him 3rd in the league in carries. He averaged 5.2 yards a carry which was 7th in the league and yielded a total of 996 rushing yards total, ranking him 12th.

Goal line carries are a pivotal part of an RBs fantasy relevancy. Does your player get TD's poached from them by a teammate? Or do they get the call and produce the 6 points that you so desperately need. Last year Chubb got 7 carries inside the 5 yard line which resulted in 5 trips to pay dirt. Other than those carries at the goal line he broke TD runs for 41, 63, and 92 yards . He had 11 runs for 20+ yards, good enough for 2nd in the league behind Saquon.

Receiving last year wasn't a huge part of Nick's game. He had 20 receptions on 29 targets for 149 yards and 2 TDs. Again all of his damage came in the last 10 weeks of the season.

Last year's touch competition was the main reason he didn't get an opportunity until so late in the season. Carlos Hyde started the year as the teams #1 back and Duke Johnson was the 3rd down guy. Once Chubb got the chance he took off like a freight train and flourished. Carlos Hyde got traded to the Jaguars and Duke stopped getting snaps. His opportunity came in part because of a coaching change from Hue Jackson to Gregg Williams mid season.

This year the Browns have hired last years Offensive Coordinator as the Head Coach, Freddie Kitchens. It was under Kitchens that Chubb was a monster. Along with a new coach there is also a new RB in Kareem Hunt but Hunt is suspended the first 8 games and may not impact the team too much this season. Duke Johnson has been very vocal about requesting a trade from the Browns although nothing has been done yet. If Johnson does get moved it could mean more 3rd down opportunities for Chubb and even more fantasy upside.

The biggest news in the Browns off season was the trade for Odell Beckham Jr. from NYG. This could be a hitch in the giddy up of Nick Chubb because teams sometimes get obsessed with using their new toy of which Odell is very very shiny. Jarvis Landry also returns to the Browns receiving corps along with Richard Higgins and Antonio Callaway. This should be a decently prolific air attack for Cleveland and Nick could take a backseat after being the main attraction for the second half of last season.

According to TheHuddle.com the Browns have the 18th ranked Offensive Line in the NFL. So don't expect them to create consistent large lanes for Chubb to shoot through. The defense is also projected as 18th in the league by BleacherReport.com so its possible the Browns will need to put up some points and lean on the pass a little more.

Verdict: RB9

Nick Chubb is going around where he should be in drafts. I have him as my RB9 and should be a mid to late 2nd round pick. If Duke Johnson gets traded his upside is even greater as there is no viable option behind him until week 9 when Hunt comes back. He doesn't have a big name which can cause him to slide in drafts. It will be tough to duplicate last years 2nd half run but he should be getting around 18 carries a game giving him the opportunity to do so. Pick him and stick him...into your RB1 spot.