Le'veon Bell
RB NY Jets
Is Le'veon going to pick up where he left off in 2017 after his sabbatical in 2018?
Average Draft Position
Bell's current ADP is 9 overall and 7 among RBs. This puts him at the end of Rd.1 right after Melvin Gordon/David Johnson but before his Steelers ex-teammate James Connor and former #1 RB fantasy scorer Todd Gurley. His ADP in 2017 was 2.3 only 2nd to David Johnson.
Career Stats
Over his career in Pittsburgh Bell averaged 19.8 rushes per game for 86.1 yards and 5 receptions per game for 42.9 yards. He's only lost 4 fumbles in the 5 seasons he's played, so he's solid with the rock. Bell has scored 42 total touchdowns in 62 career games which means he scores about 67% of games. He played a full 16 games and once and endured a shortened 6 game season in 2015 due to an MCL tear. In the two years he played at least 15 games (2014+2017) he made the NFL All-Pro team both times. 2017 was a year where he averaged over 7 targets a game as the 2nd most targeted RB and 28th overall most targeted player. He averaged 22.8 and 26.5 fantasy ppg. in PPR formats in 2016/2017 making him the #1 and #2 best RB in the league those years. Bell didn't play in 2018 due to a contract dispute and was subsequently signed by the NY Jets.
Does Scheme Matter?
So we've covered Le'veon's illustrious start to his career but some may argue that his stats are inflated due to his old team's scheme. When James Connor took over last year for an unhappy Bell he ran for 74.8 yards per game while scoring 12 TD's on the ground. Through the air Conner had 55 receptions for 497 yards and added a TD. Those numbers probably helped make the decision to cut ties with Bell this off season.
Bell's new team, the New York Jets, coached by Adam Gase may change his fantasy output. Gase has been the head coach of the Miami Dolphins for the past 3 years. In the 3 years as head honcho Gase's teams ranked 9th, 29th and 18th in rushing yards. For rushing TD's in that same span they ranked 15th, 31st and 30th. The Steelers during the same 3 year period under Mike Tomlin ranked 14th, 20th and 31st in rushing yards and 16th, 15th and 7th in rushing Td's. Gase is taking over a team that was run by head coach Todd Bowles. Bowles was a defensive back in his playing days and a defensive minded coach in his coaching days. He along with then GM Mike Maccagnan put together a team that ranked 26th, 28th and 29th in total offense 2016-2018. Teams don't generally climb out of a rut like that overnight.
During Gase's tenure in Miami he had Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake as his top backs. Those 3 RB's are not bottom of the barrel players but they also aren't on the same level as Le'veon. With Bell and a better defense it's possible Gase runs the ball a smidge more. As far as targets to the RB, within Gase's gameplan, 2018 Drake was 16th in the league among RB's for targets with 4.6 per game, 2017 he averaged 3 targets. But, in 2014 while Gase was the Offensive Coordinator for the Chicago Bears he had an RB that lead the league in targets named Matt Forte. Forte averaged 8.1 targets per game which was 1.5 more targets than the next guy on the list who was...Le'veon Bell.
There's talk out there that Adam Gase's offense will severely hinder Bells production. What these stats show is that Bell will get his opportunity on the ground. The only issue could be Bells attempts at the end zone in close BUT he may make up for those opportunities through the air. Moral of the story? If Le'veon has a down year it won't necessarily be because of Adam Gase.
Teammate's Effect on Production
Let's start with the biggest reason for running back success, the O-Line. According to Pro Football Focus in Pittsburgh Bell ran behind a 3rd ranked line in 2016 and a 12th ranked line in 2017. Last year, the Jets ranked 25th in those same rankings, ouch. But, 2019 is a new year and the Jets made some changes to their offensive line. They brought in Kelechi Osemele to play left guard and also hired a new offensive line coach, Frank Pollack. With the new additions to the line, PFF has this Jets unit going into the season ranked...drumroll please...28th in the league. Ladies and gentlemen if Le'veon has a bad season this could be where the blame lays.
The person responsible for tossing Bell the rock this year will be Sam Darnold. Last year Darnold didn't dazzle but he did start playing better toward the end of the season. If he can start next season off this season that way maybe it creates a little more space for the run game.
The running backs behind a starter often cut into their touches. Last years backs of consequence returning to the Jets are Bilal Powell and Elijah Mcguire. Another RB brought in was Ty Montgomery the former GB WR who could take some targets away from Bell. Talent/Salary wise Bell is way ahead of his back ups so unless theres an injury I don't see him losing too many touches.
Schedule
According to Fantasy Pros the Jets have the 4th easiest schedule for running backs this year. They face a particularly juicy stretch at the end of the fantasy season with 4 opponents out of 6 ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league in rush yards allowed in 2018.
The fantasy playoff schedule for Bell looks pretty bleak. If you're good enough where weeks 15 and 16 matter to you, you'll be going against 2 of the league's top 5 rushing defenses with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. There's also a great chance the Jets will be out of contention at that point in the season, which is when beat up veterans needed for the next year take it easy. Although a Le'veon vs. Pittsburgh week 16 game for your championship could be fun to watch.
Verdict RB8
Le'veon Bell will be the Jets best offensive weapon this upcoming year. He'll have to overcome an awful offensive line, a losing team and a coach that didn't really want him but will undoubtedly use him. Between his skill and opportunity he should still have a decent season. Le'veon Bell, as of now, is my RB8.
Does Scheme Matter?
So we've covered Le'veon's illustrious start to his career but some may argue that his stats are inflated due to his old team's scheme. When James Connor took over last year for an unhappy Bell he ran for 74.8 yards per game while scoring 12 TD's on the ground. Through the air Conner had 55 receptions for 497 yards and added a TD. Those numbers probably helped make the decision to cut ties with Bell this off season.
Bell's new team, the New York Jets, coached by Adam Gase may change his fantasy output. Gase has been the head coach of the Miami Dolphins for the past 3 years. In the 3 years as head honcho Gase's teams ranked 9th, 29th and 18th in rushing yards. For rushing TD's in that same span they ranked 15th, 31st and 30th. The Steelers during the same 3 year period under Mike Tomlin ranked 14th, 20th and 31st in rushing yards and 16th, 15th and 7th in rushing Td's. Gase is taking over a team that was run by head coach Todd Bowles. Bowles was a defensive back in his playing days and a defensive minded coach in his coaching days. He along with then GM Mike Maccagnan put together a team that ranked 26th, 28th and 29th in total offense 2016-2018. Teams don't generally climb out of a rut like that overnight.
During Gase's tenure in Miami he had Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake as his top backs. Those 3 RB's are not bottom of the barrel players but they also aren't on the same level as Le'veon. With Bell and a better defense it's possible Gase runs the ball a smidge more. As far as targets to the RB, within Gase's gameplan, 2018 Drake was 16th in the league among RB's for targets with 4.6 per game, 2017 he averaged 3 targets. But, in 2014 while Gase was the Offensive Coordinator for the Chicago Bears he had an RB that lead the league in targets named Matt Forte. Forte averaged 8.1 targets per game which was 1.5 more targets than the next guy on the list who was...Le'veon Bell.
There's talk out there that Adam Gase's offense will severely hinder Bells production. What these stats show is that Bell will get his opportunity on the ground. The only issue could be Bells attempts at the end zone in close BUT he may make up for those opportunities through the air. Moral of the story? If Le'veon has a down year it won't necessarily be because of Adam Gase.
Teammate's Effect on Production
Let's start with the biggest reason for running back success, the O-Line. According to Pro Football Focus in Pittsburgh Bell ran behind a 3rd ranked line in 2016 and a 12th ranked line in 2017. Last year, the Jets ranked 25th in those same rankings, ouch. But, 2019 is a new year and the Jets made some changes to their offensive line. They brought in Kelechi Osemele to play left guard and also hired a new offensive line coach, Frank Pollack. With the new additions to the line, PFF has this Jets unit going into the season ranked...drumroll please...28th in the league. Ladies and gentlemen if Le'veon has a bad season this could be where the blame lays.
The person responsible for tossing Bell the rock this year will be Sam Darnold. Last year Darnold didn't dazzle but he did start playing better toward the end of the season. If he can start next season off this season that way maybe it creates a little more space for the run game.
The running backs behind a starter often cut into their touches. Last years backs of consequence returning to the Jets are Bilal Powell and Elijah Mcguire. Another RB brought in was Ty Montgomery the former GB WR who could take some targets away from Bell. Talent/Salary wise Bell is way ahead of his back ups so unless theres an injury I don't see him losing too many touches.
Schedule
According to Fantasy Pros the Jets have the 4th easiest schedule for running backs this year. They face a particularly juicy stretch at the end of the fantasy season with 4 opponents out of 6 ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league in rush yards allowed in 2018.
The fantasy playoff schedule for Bell looks pretty bleak. If you're good enough where weeks 15 and 16 matter to you, you'll be going against 2 of the league's top 5 rushing defenses with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. There's also a great chance the Jets will be out of contention at that point in the season, which is when beat up veterans needed for the next year take it easy. Although a Le'veon vs. Pittsburgh week 16 game for your championship could be fun to watch.
Verdict RB8
Le'veon Bell will be the Jets best offensive weapon this upcoming year. He'll have to overcome an awful offensive line, a losing team and a coach that didn't really want him but will undoubtedly use him. Between his skill and opportunity he should still have a decent season. Le'veon Bell, as of now, is my RB8.
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